Operation Epic Fury: How the US-Israel Strikes on Iran Are Reshaping Global Markets — Oil, Gold, Crypto, and What Investors Should Do Now

What Happened? Operation Epic Fury Explained

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran in what has been dubbed Operation Epic Fury. The strikes targeted key military commanders, facilities, and reportedly the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which satellite images show was heavily damaged. The operation came after nuclear talks in Geneva broke down. Iran retaliated within hours, launching dozens of ballistic missiles across the Persian Gulf, targeting Israel and US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE intercepted missiles safely, but the escalation has plunged the Middle East into its most dangerous crisis in decades.

How Did Oil Markets React?

Oil prices surged immediately. WTI crude jumped above $67 per barrel, while Brent crude pushed toward $70 — the highest levels since August 2025. The critical concern is the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world global oil supply passes daily. If Iran attempts to close or disrupt the strait, analysts warn oil could spike to $100-$140 per barrel. Some forecasters at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have already raised their oil price targets. The energy sector is expected to be the biggest winner when markets reopen Monday, with defense stocks also likely to surge. For consumers, higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, higher shipping costs, and renewed inflationary pressure — exactly what the Federal Reserve does not need.

Why Did Gold Surge Past $5,300?

Gold exploded to a record $5,278-$5,300 per ounce as investors rushed into the ultimate safe-haven asset. Silver jumped nearly 8% in sympathy. The move was driven by pure fear — when geopolitical uncertainty spikes, institutional and retail investors alike flee to gold and US Treasuries. Bank of America has raised its gold forecast to $6,000, and some analysts see $6,750 if the conflict escalates further. Gold has now gained over 60% in the past 18 months, making it one of the best-performing asset classes of 2025-2026. For investors who already hold gold, this is validation of the hedge. For those who do not, buying into a parabolic move carries risk — but the geopolitical backdrop suggests gold has further upside if the conflict does not resolve quickly.

What Happened to Bitcoin and Crypto?

Bitcoin dropped nearly 5% to $63,000 in the immediate aftermath, with approximately $128 billion wiped from the total crypto market capitalization. Ethereum fell 4.5% to $1,835, and altcoins like Solana and XRP saw even sharper declines. The sell-off was amplified by leveraged positions being liquidated — Bitcoin derivatives sell volume surged as traders rushed to cut risk. Bitcoin has since partially recovered to the $64,000-$65,000 range, but analysts warn that a broader stock market sell-off on Monday could push BTC toward or below $60,000. The Iran crisis once again proves that in moments of acute geopolitical fear, crypto behaves like a high-risk asset, not a safe haven. Gold is where scared money goes. Crypto is where it leaves.

What Should Stock Market Investors Expect on Monday?

Markets were closed when the strikes occurred on Saturday, so the full impact will not be felt until Monday morning. Based on historical precedent and futures market signals, expect the following: the S&P 500 is likely to open 2-4% lower, with technology and growth stocks hit hardest. Energy stocks (ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips) and defense stocks (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman) are expected to surge. Treasury bonds will rally as investors seek safety, pushing yields lower. The VIX (fear index) is expected to spike above 30. Airlines and travel stocks will likely sell off on higher fuel costs. The key variable is whether the conflict escalates further or if diplomatic channels open — a ceasefire or de-escalation would trigger a sharp relief rally.

How Should You Position Your Portfolio Right Now?

First, do not panic sell. Geopolitical crises have historically been buying opportunities for long-term investors — the market recovered from the Gulf War, 9/11, the Iraq invasion, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Second, if you have cash on the sidelines, Monday sell-off could present opportunities in quality stocks that get dragged down by broad market fear. Third, consider adding to gold or Treasury positions as a hedge if you are underweight. Fourth, be cautious with energy stocks — they will spike on Monday but could reverse quickly if the conflict de-escalates. Fifth, avoid making large leveraged bets in either direction. The range of outcomes is extremely wide, from a quick resolution to a prolonged regional war, and positioning for either extreme is gambling, not investing. The best strategy in uncertainty is diversification, patience, and a long-term perspective.

What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Does It Matter?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil pass daily — roughly 20% of global supply. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to military action. A full closure would be the most significant oil supply disruption since the 1973 Arab oil embargo and could send oil prices above $100 per barrel within days. Even a partial disruption — increased insurance costs for tankers, military escorts required, slower transit times — would add $5-$15 per barrel to oil prices. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain specifically to keep the strait open, but Iran ballistic missile capabilities make the waterway vulnerable. This is the single biggest risk factor for global markets in the coming weeks.